Bitcoin Re-Reaches $94,000: A New Bull Run or a Bull Trap?

Bitcoin price has broken above $94,000, and the market is watching to see if a new bull market will start. The technical pattern is bullish, but the volume does not match the rise. Macro policies and ETF approvals affect market sentiment.

Article author: Jack

Article source: Mars Finance

Bitcoin was once again in the spotlight last night, with its price returning to the $94,000 mark with a strong return. This breakthrough move has sparked widespread discussion in the market: does this mark the beginning of a new bull market or a brief technical rally?

As of press time, the price of Bitcoin has fallen back to around $92,000, and despite the strong price performance last night, the volume data did not fully match the upward trend.

Attack and defense of key resistance levels and market sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting

After a brief period of structural weakness on December 3, Bitcoin struggled to secure an intraday close above $93,000.

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, a major macroeconomic event, approaches, market participants have mostly chosen to wait and see, leading to several days of sideways trading.

This impasse was broken on December 5, with the Bitcoin price successfully breaking above $93,500, forming the high needed for a short-term bullish trend revival.

From a technical analysis perspective, on the four-hour chart, Bitcoin not only completely fills the fair value gap between $87,500 and $90,000, but also shows a firm willingness to buy. The effectiveness of this breakout is particularly significant in the context of macro events that can trigger volatility.

A confirmed “cup and handle pattern” was observed on the four-hour chart, suggesting that if Bitcoin manages to break above $96,000, the next target could point towards $104,000. At the same time, the “reverse head and shoulders pattern” has also basically taken shape, and these two bullish patterns have jointly boosted the confidence of the bulls.

Market analysts generally believe that $94,000 is a key psychological level that coincides with a descending trendline resistance. The criteria for judging whether the trend can be sustained, the criteria are very clear: if Bitcoin’s daily close can stabilize above $96,000, it will be regarded as a strong bullish reversal signal; Conversely, if this resistance fails, a swift retracement to the $88,000-$89,000 range could occur.

More broadly, the $95,000 area is seen as the “main battleground” for both long and short sides. A successful breakout of this area could open room for the price to test the $99,000 to $107,000 range; If the breakout fails, the pullback could go deeper, potentially even retesting the $85,000 support and, in extreme cases, further down to $76,000.

Contradictory signals of liquidity status and market participation

Bitcoin Preference-Ask Price Ratio vs. Liquidation Data Analysis. Source: Hyblock

Despite the encouraging price action, market liquidity indicators do not fully validate the uptrend. Bitcoin’s buy-sell ratio remains relatively low and volatile.

Unlike the aggressive buying that occurred in November when it plummeted from $100,000 to $80,000, the current rally has not seen the same strong buying support. This suggests that the recent rally has been primarily driven by price movements rather than solid new demand. Exchange premium data also presents a complex picture.

South Korea’s premium index, which is often an important indicator of retail sentiment, has cooled significantly. Previously, the Korean market often traded at a premium during rally, but this enthusiasm has now waned and is close to flat or slightly negative, indicating that retail speculators have not yet entered the market on a large scale.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index, which represents institutional demand in the United States, turned positive again.

Historical data shows that mild positive readings tend to occur during early trend reversals and spot accumulation phases. This geographical difference further complicates the market outlook.

On-chain data provides additional insights. The number of “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC hit a new high in 2025, and large transfers also reached a three-month peak. This usually indicates that “smart money” is taking positions, rather than short-term speculators dominating the market. The average cost for short-term holders is close to $90,000, forming a psychological support level.

Market risks and potential challenges

While the outlook may seem positive, several risk factors cannot be ignored. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy movements have always been a key macro factor influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory.

On the eve of the FOMC meeting, the market generally expects a possible 25 basis point rate cut.

Historical data indicates that five of the six FOMC meetings this year coincided with Bitcoin price corrections.

Looking at technical indicators, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought range (>70), with the 200-day moving average near $96,216 acting as a strong resistance.

In addition, leverage risk is particularly prominent. Coinglass data shows that if the price falls below $87,000, it could trigger a chain liquidation of more than $2.1 billion.

This high-leverage environment makes the market more prone to sharp volatility.

conclusion

Bitcoin’s regain of $94,000 has undoubtedly injected renewed optimism into the market, but more evidence is still needed to determine whether the bull market has truly restarted. The market is currently at a point where technical bullish signals resonate with macro favorable ones, but they are subject to key resistance levels and liquidity concerns.

Investors should closely monitor the $96,000 breakout and the Fed’s policy movements, which are more important than a single candlestick pattern. In an environment where volatility may increase, position management and risk control are more important than pursuing short-term gains.

The Bitcoin market has entered a new era of complex pricing driven by ETF capital flows, leverage cycles, stablecoin liquidity, holder structure, and macro liquidity, and understanding the interlocking relationship between these signals will be key to navigating the future market.