2025-12-10 03:47:34

Although the hoarding giant Strategy has recently stabilized - no longer selling coins like crazy, and the strategy has switched to a conservative mode (priority debt repayment, interest payment on time), things are far from over.

I looked at the market on Polymarket and found that there were still people betting that it would not hold on: 18% of the funds bet on selling BTC next summer, and 35% betting on shipping before the end of the year. The real thunderstorm is here - 71% of forecasts point to the same thing: MSCI is likely to kick Strategy out of the two major stock indexes by March 31 next year.

This is where the boss really panicked. Saying "it doesn't matter", community fans are still calling enthusiastically, but the funds vote with their feet, and their worries are written on the board. Once kicked out of the index, passively tracked institutional funds will have to be forced to sell their stocks, what will be the chain reaction at that time? The market is already pricing in this risk in advance.

BTC-1.55%

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airdrop_whisperer

· 14h ago

The board is like this, and the mouth is hard, I really can't hold it haha

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MetaMisery

· 14h ago

Funds vote with their feet, it's useless to be hard-mouthed, 71% of the consensus is not a joke. --- The moment you are kicked out of the index, institutional funds cannot run away, and then it will be a real collapse. --- Polymarket's data is not deceiving, the market has already set prices, just to see who reacts first. --- It is said that it is conservative, but the market is still betting on it to overturn, and the gap is too heart-wrenching. --- Once passive funds are forced to sell, who can withstand the chain reaction? This is the real black swan. --- The mouth is steady, but 35% of the funds are betting on shipping before the end of the year, which is a great contrast. --- The market's expectations have been locked, and it may not be enough to expect fans to call for a comeback. --- MSCI kicking out the index is the deadliest, this is not risk pricing, this is the countdown to death.

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alpha_leaker