The latest market data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 89.2%, making it almost a certainty. Behind this figure, traditional safe-haven asset gold was the first to react, with prices surging rapidly. Easing expectations are reshaping investors’ portfolio allocation logic.

Even more noteworthy are changes in personnel: the final interview for the Federal Reserve Chair candidate was suddenly canceled, and Hassett has become a leading contender. Such a personnel adjustment at this juncture inevitably brings to mind the possibility of a shift in monetary policy next year. If the new chair does indeed adopt a more aggressive easing stance, market liquidity expectations will be completely rewritten.

The logic behind the surge in gold is actually straightforward—rate cuts mean the real yield on the US dollar declines, so capital naturally flows into interest-free but inflation-resistant precious metals. With the probability approaching 90%, many funds have already positioned themselves in advance. Some institutions are even beginning to discuss the possibility of a new precious metals cycle.

But reality is often more complicated than expectations. Historical experience shows that the market usually experiences sharp volatility before and after the "shoe drops." Should you chase the rally and buy now or wait for a technical pullback? This is a question that requires calm judgment.

If liquidity is indeed unleashed on a large scale, would you prioritize allocating to traditional safe-haven assets or shift toward the crypto market? The performance logic of different assets during easing cycles varies greatly.