It looks like a December rate cut is almost a sure thing.

Prediction markets on Polymarket show that traders are heavily betting the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this month, with the probability surging to 94%. This overwhelming consensus indicates the market is quite certain about a policy shift.

There are a few key data points to watch tonight:

At 8:30 PM, the November Challenger job cuts data will be released.
At 9:30 PM, keep an eye on initial jobless claims—the market expects 220,000.
At 11:00 PM, there’s also the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and factory orders data.

These employment and manufacturing figures will directly impact the Fed’s decision-making balance. If the data comes in weaker than expected, rate cut expectations may heat up even further; if not, that 94% probability might see some fluctuations.