Last week during an internal meeting, the boss suddenly threw out a question: How likely do you think it is that BTC will fall into a deep bear market this time?

At the time, I shared some of my own views, but after speaking, I felt something was off—there was too much personal emotion mixed into those judgments. After the meeting, I kept wondering if there was a more objective way to answer this question.

Eventually, I focused on one indicator: investor price sensitivity.

Simply put, it measures how much unrealized loss pressure long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) each bear on paper for every 1% drop in BTC. You can think of "relative unrealized loss" as a kind of pain intensity—the higher the value, the more uncomfortable investors feel with each point drop, and the more sensitive they become to price fluctuations.

What's interesting about this indicator is that it spans over a decade of market cycles and clearly marks the trigger signals of several deep bears in history: whenever the LTH sensitivity curve (blue line) crosses above the STH curve (red line) and continues to climb, a deep bear market is basically not far off.

Looking back at previous cycles, the evolution path is almost identical:

Stage one, normal bull market correction. At this point, only short-term capital panics—the red line goes up on its own, long-term holders barely see losses, and the blue line is almost flat along the zero line.

Stage two, the price continues to fall. After the red line reaches a certain threshold, it actually starts to drop, indicating that those who bought in at high prices are...