12.10 BTC Morning Market Analysis

I. Logical Support

1. Pre-positioned Macroeconomic Event Speculation: The Federal Reserve's December rate decision will be released tonight, and the market is already showing volatility in advance. The current price of 92,100 is at the center of the "rate cut expectations pricing" and "pre-decision caution" tug-of-war, with volatility likely to remain high.
2. Technical Long-Short Divergence: The daily chart previously broke through the strong resistance at 94,000 and then pulled back. It is now supported by the EMA convergence zone (90,300-90,400), but the 1-hour candlestick is suppressed by the middle Bollinger Band, and MACD bearish momentum has not fully subsided, forming a "support below, pressure above" consolidation pattern.
3. Capital Signal Warning: Early morning saw $200 million in long liquidations. While whales are positioning, ETF inflows are weak, lacking sustained capital momentum for a short-term rally, and retracement needs have not been fully digested.

II. Trend Characterization

Short-term consolidation with a bearish bias, no clear trending move: As of 9:40 AM, BTC has not held above the key resistance at 92,500, and is showing a "lower highs" weak consolidation structure. On the hourly chart, bullish momentum is fading, making it unlikely to break out of the range before the Fed decision, with a higher probability of testing support than moving up.

III. Trading Strategy

Long

- Entry: 91,000-91,500 | Stop: Below 90,300 | Target: 92,300-92,500

Short

- Entry: 92,500-92,800 | Stop: Above 93,000 | Target: 91,200-91,500

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