Once the ADP employment data came out today, BTC bulls must be grinning.

The numbers are rough—last month there was at least a 42,000 job increase, but this month it dropped straight into negative territory, down by 32,000. That’s a swing of over 70,000 in just one month, which is a pretty dramatic turnaround.

Since November, the US job market has clearly started to buckle. It’s not just that job openings are shrinking; wage growth has also slowed compared to October, and even the pay raise from job-hopping has narrowed. Every metric is pointing in the same direction: weakness, and accelerating weakness at that.

What’s more troubling is that once employment data turns, it rarely does so gently. When companies can hold out, they’ll tough it out—neither hiring nor firing, which is exactly what we’ve seen in recent months. But when they really can’t hold on any longer, layoffs can accelerate exponentially, which fits the basic logic of company operations.

The weakness we’re seeing now is likely just the beginning. Of course, this is only the ADP report, and its coverage isn’t as broad as the official nonfarm payroll data, but the trend is already clear enough. For the crypto market, weakening employment means rising expectations of rate cuts and a looser funding environment, which in the short term provides support for BTC.