#美联储降息预测 The Federal Reserve is set to implement its third consecutive rate cut on Wednesday, while also issuing warning signals about the future.

After a period of apparent hesitation regarding which direction central bank policymakers would lean, the market has largely priced in a 0.25 percentage point rate cut this time. If that happens, the Fed's benchmark interest rate would be lowered to a range of 3.5%–3.75%.

However, the situation is not that simple. There are divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rates:

Some members believe that rate cuts are needed to prevent further weakening of the labor market;

Others believe that policy easing has gone far enough, and further cuts could exacerbate inflationary pressures. This is why the term “hawkish cut” has become a buzzword for this meeting. In market terms, it means the Fed will cut rates, but at the same time signal that another rate cut should not be expected in the near term. “The most likely outcome is a ‘hawkish cut,’ meaning they will cut rates but then hint in the statement and press conference that they may pause further cuts for now.”

That's according to Bill English, former director of monetary affairs at the Fed and now a professor at Yale University. English expects the Fed to send the message: “They’ve made an adjustment and are comfortable with where things stand; as long as things play out roughly as they expect, they don’t see a need for further action in the near future.” The committee’s overall stance will be reflected in the post-meeting policy statement and in Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Wall Street economic commentary expects some tweaks to the policy statement, recalling language from a year ago regarding “the magnitude and timing of any further adjustments.” Goldman Sachs expects this will reflect “a higher bar for further rate cuts.”