At 21:15 tonight, a single data point could shake up the entire market.

The ADP Employment Report is coming. With the official nonfarm payroll data delayed, this private employment report has suddenly become the key indicator everyone is watching. What will the Fed do next? Will the market experience sharp volatility? The answers are hidden in these numbers.

Two possible outcomes, two directions:

If new jobs added are close to 40,000—a strong number would mean the economy’s resilience remains, and the Fed is likely to maintain its high interest rate stance. Risk assets like Bitcoin? Short-term pressure is very likely.

But if the data is weak, with new jobs falling to 5,000 or even lower—rate cut expectations will heat up instantly, market sentiment could reverse in a flash, and crypto assets might see a rebound window.

To be honest, the hour before and after the data release is when unexpected moves are most likely. False breakouts, whipsaws, stop hunts... Don’t rush in, and don’t panic out. Keep a close eye on the US stock market open, the US Dollar Index, and US Treasury yields—their reactions will be quicker and more direct than the crypto market.

There are two types of traders:

Short-term players—set your stop losses in advance, don’t count on managing positions manually, the market won’t wait for you to react.
Medium- to long-term investors—for you, these short-term data swings are just noise, don’t get shaken out if the core trend hasn’t changed.

In times of uncertainty, patience is worth far more than frequent trading. Hold onto your positions, wait for the data to drop and the direction to become clear before making a move—that’s what smart money does.