Just saw an interesting data point—the market barely reacted to the ADP employment report when it comes to expectations for the Fed’s move in December.

According to the latest data from CME, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month is steady at 88.8%, with only an 11.2% chance of no change. What’s even more interesting is the forecast for January next year: nearly 30% of traders are betting on a total 50-basis-point cut, but the mainstream view (63%) still favors a moderate 25-basis-point cut, while 7.5% think rates will stay put.

This kind of stability in expectations is actually a double-edged sword for the crypto market—it clarifies liquidity expectations, but lacks unexpected stimulus. The recent high-level consolidation of BTC may be related to this “shoe is hanging but not dropping” situation.