Can gold hold above 4200 tonight? The answer will be revealed soon with four major data releases.

Right now, gold prices are stuck fluctuating around the 4200 mark, with neither the bulls nor the bears willing to back down. The Fed’s policy direction is still undecided, making the market resemble a tug-of-war in a stalemate — once tonight’s data drops, the balance will immediately tip.

Here’s the timetable:

**9:15 PM ADP Employment Data** (Market expectation: +25K, Previous: +42K) — If the data unexpectedly comes in lower than expected, safe-haven funds will flood in and gold prices will likely shoot directly past 4260, possibly heading for 4300+. But if the data is too strong? Then the 4220 support line is at risk, and failing to hold it could mean a direct pullback to the 4200 neckline.

**9:30 PM Import Price Index** (Expected +0.1%) is even more crucial. If inflation still doesn’t cool, hawkish Fed expectations will be reinforced, and the short-term upward trendline for gold could be lost instantly. On the flip side, if the data is weak, after a confirmed pullback, a reversal could push gold up to the 4250-4260 resistance zone.

**10:15 PM Industrial Production Data** (Expected +0.1%) — If it shows economic weakness, recession fears will drive gold to break above the top of its trading range, heading straight for 4350. But if it’s surprisingly strong, expect continued back-and-forth battles within the 4200-4250 range, with bulls and bears taking turns.

The finale: **11:00 PM ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI** (Expected 52.0) is the most intense — if it drops below the 50 expansion-contraction line, risk-off sentiment will skyrocket and gold’s upside will fully open up. If it stays above 52 in expansion territory, then prepare to watch continued consolidation between 4200-4260, with the MACD indicator likely flipping between golden and death crosses.

From a technical perspective, keep a close eye on two key zones: the 4200-4220 support band below, and the 4260-4300 resistance band above. If there’s a real breakout once the data is out, make sure to check if trading volume supports it — breakouts without volume are just fakeouts. Remember to set your stop-loss, never stubbornly hold your position, and always follow the trend.