Many people like to separate fundamentals, technical analysis, and news flow when discussing them. But honestly, I prefer to see fundamentals and technicals as two sides of the same coin.

The logic is simple—if a project is truly solid and the product is actually being implemented, you don’t even need to read the whitepaper; just watch the charts. The long-term moving averages will speak for themselves: steadily trending upward, with the price climbing in a wave-like pattern along the moving averages. This is the market voting on the fundamentals with real money. $SUI and $HYPE in this bull run are textbook examples.

On the flip side, if a project’s foundation is shaky, it doesn’t matter if you draw the candlestick chart like Van Gogh’s Starry Night. The long-term moving averages simply can’t form a healthy spiral structure; the whole trend is as messy as a twisted doughnut.

What about news flow? It’s basically those short-term spikes and pullbacks on the chart. Good news can temporarily push the price further away from the moving average, bad news can drag it back, but—pay attention to this “but”—it can’t shake the direction of the long-term moving average. That’s because, at its core, the moving average is the EKG of the fundamentals.

$TON is the best counterexample. Tons of good news, but the price just won’t rise. Either there’s a crack in the underlying logic, or the moving averages haven’t adjusted yet. As long as the moving average hasn’t reversed direction, no amount of hype in the news can change a thing.

So my trading logic boils down to two points:

1. Fundamentals determine whether a coin deserves to be held long-term.
2. The moving average tells you what stage it’s at right now.

News flow? It just makes the story sound more exciting, but it can’t change the plot. So don’t lose your head just because a coin suddenly gets some major hype; news only affects the price for a few days, not the trend for a few months.