The latest US September core PCE data is quite interesting—the annual rate dropped to 2.8%, even lower than Wall Street’s forecasts. Combined with a clearly cooling job market, the Fed officials can finally breathe a sigh of relief as the nightmare of an inflation rebound isn’t an immediate concern.

The market is now generally betting on a rate cut in December. The key is to keep a close eye on the dot plot released at the end-of-month meeting, as it will basically reveal the policy direction for 2026. What’s more subtle is that senior government officials have been hinting at room for rate cuts recently. With possible personnel changes within the Fed, expectations for easing are rising.

But don’t get too excited just yet. Silver ETF holdings have been shrinking lately, and liquidity is starting to show some volatility. Chasing highs in this environment is risky, especially ahead of major decisions—playing it safe is wiser.

On the technical side, gold’s four-hour chart is maintaining an upward trend, with resistance likely around 4230. In the short term, it’s best to stay on the sidelines and wait for a clearer direction before making moves.