Let’s talk about the recent market situation, and I’ll get straight to the point: it’s time to prepare for short positions.

Here are a few signals:

The rate cut is basically a done deal and has long been priced in by the market. With a 99.9% probability already factored in, when it actually happens, it’s likely to become a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario—same old story.

Technical indicators are also aligning with a bearish outlook. The daily rebound has just hit the 30-day moving average, and reaching that 94,100 high was thanks to the help of a certain exchange founder’s release and some unexpected news. But resistance is resistance—what goes up must come down.

The rate cut drama in Japan has already played out, and all the hype has been exhausted. If the market continues as expected, the next phase will be the early digestion of bearish factors, with bearish sentiment leading the way.

Don’t forget about the four-year cycle rule. A bear market is highly likely in 2026, and in this context, rebounds are just setups for bigger drops—there’s no lowest, only lower.

US stocks are already approaching all-time highs, driven by tech stocks in a strong bull run. But capital flows on their own schedule, and there’s a high chance of a round of concentrated selling before or around Christmas—watch out for topping signals.

Based on all these factors, I’m preparing to build up long-term short positions again. We have fundamental support for this move, technical levels have been reached, and the timing window is about right.

**Specific strategy:**

For BTC, build positions in batches in the 90,000–91,500 range, with position sizes increasing at 3%-5%-10%. The first target is 83,600, and the deeper target is 78,800.

For ETH, also build in batches in the 3,060–3,100 range, with the same position rhythm. The first target is 2,660, and the second target is 2,350.

That’s all for the weekend. Remember to manage your risk and trade safely.