Here’s my straight read going into the last Fed meeting of 2025, with the market sitting at an ~84% implied probability of a cut.
🎯 My Prediction
I’m expecting a 25 bps rate cut. The data basically forces their hand at this point. But let’s be real: the reaction won’t be clean. A cut this heavily priced in usually triggers a “sell the news” shakeout before anything meaningful happens. The real move comes after Powell lays out what liquidity looks like for 2026.
⚔️ My Trading Approach
I’m not chasing anything on the initial spike, that’s how you donate money to volatility.
My setup:
Limit buys: $88,500 – $89,200 I’m deliberately waiting for a wick to flush the impatient crowd.
Post-dip plan: If the structure holds, I’m riding the reversal.
Target: ~$96,000 by the weekend, assuming liquidity guidance isn’t a disaster.
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🦅 FED DECISION FINAL CALL
Here’s my straight read going into the last Fed meeting of 2025, with the market sitting at an ~84% implied probability of a cut.
🎯 My Prediction
I’m expecting a 25 bps rate cut. The data basically forces their hand at this point.
But let’s be real: the reaction won’t be clean. A cut this heavily priced in usually triggers a “sell the news” shakeout before anything meaningful happens.
The real move comes after Powell lays out what liquidity looks like for 2026.
⚔️ My Trading Approach
I’m not chasing anything on the initial spike, that’s how you donate money to volatility.
My setup:
Limit buys: $88,500 – $89,200
I’m deliberately waiting for a wick to flush the impatient crowd.
Post-dip plan: If the structure holds, I’m riding the reversal.
Target: ~$96,000 by the weekend, assuming liquidity guidance isn’t a disaster.
Today’s edge isn’t speed, it’s patience.
#FedRateCutPrediction