Bitcoin’s performance in November was quite lackluster, dropping 23% in a single month. What’s even more noteworthy is that spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $3.5 billion, with Japanese investors’ withdrawals being particularly prominent—their redemptions accounted for as much as 38%.

The logic behind this is actually not hard to understand. As the Bank of Japan gradually tightens its monetary policy, those previous carry trades that relied on low-interest yen loans to buy risk assets are now being unwound at an accelerated pace. As funds flow back to Japan, they are naturally being pulled out of highly volatile assets like BTC.

The market generally expects the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike path to be: one in June 2026, and then one each in January and July 2027. If this pace holds, the pressure to unwind carry trades may persist for some time.