Tonight’s market movement is definitely worth a serious discussion. Can 96000 be broken through in one go? Or will it turn around and drop back to 92373 or even 89000? After watching the chart and the latest news, there are some intriguing clues.

**Changes on the news front**

JPMorgan just issued an important reminder: The public company holding the largest amount of coins, Strategy, will not be forced to sell Bitcoin for now. The reason is simple—the ratio of the book value of their BTC holdings to the company’s market cap is still within the regulatory safety range. This needs to be understood in reverse: previously, the market’s biggest concern was this potential selling pressure, but now this risk is temporarily defused. However, the company’s own stock price has dropped significantly, and the pace of accumulation is slow as a snail, which shows that institutional funds are actually still waiting on the sidelines. Don’t expect anyone to take the lead and push the price up immediately.

**Contradictory technical signals**

Looking at the hourly chart, the trend is indeed upward, but two details are very subtle:

The 96000 level has failed to break through multiple times—it’s a typical strong resistance zone. Like a steel plate, every time the price hits it, it gets pushed back.

The MACD indicator is showing a bearish crossover above the zero line—this is the easiest technical trap to misjudge. On the surface, it looks like the uptrend is intact, but the momentum has actually faded. It’s like a car in a high gear, but the engine RPM is dropping. Combined with trading volume, both bulls and bears are hesitating—no one dares to go all-in on a direction.

**So, how do I see the market now?**

To be honest, I think the chance of a direct, forceful breakout above 96000 tonight is less than 30%. The more likely scenario is—