I looked at the market yesterday, and today it's highly likely to keep rising, but don’t expect a broad rally—right now we’re seeing a differentiated trend. During yesterday’s high-volume rebound, the brokerage sector led the charge with tech stocks supporting on the side. Although things softened a bit towards the close, overall the profit-making effect was still pretty obvious.
There probably won’t be any big moves before mid-December; there might be some pullbacks during this period, but nothing too deep. Want to see an accelerated rally by year-end? I think that’s unlikely. For those who didn’t significantly increase positions before last Thursday, I really wouldn’t recommend heavily chasing highs this week.
Over in the US market, the three major indexes dipped slightly yesterday. Large tech stocks were mixed: Tesla dropped over 3%, Google also fell more than 2%; meanwhile, Broadcom rose more than 2%, Nvidia was up 1% during the session and continued to climb more than 2% after hours. Memory chip stocks collectively strengthened, with Micron Technology surging over 4%.
Chinese concept stocks were also mixed: Baidu rose over 3%, XPeng gained 2.6%, and NetEase fell more than 2%.
In commodity futures, gold fell $23/oz, and oil futures dropped more than 2%.
Looking at the long-short ratio data, it increased yesterday, all above 1.0, with the bulls in control, which is favorable for a rebound. The long-short ratio for the ChiNext Index is greater than 1.5, which means it’s time to consider reducing positions. However, even though the CSI 500 sector closed higher, its long-short ratio actually dropped—which suggests main funds are showing signs of retreat, so be alert.
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FarmToRiches
· 14h ago
The divergence market is like this: the profit-making effect is obvious, but don't be greedy. The recent rally in brokerage tech looks quite comfortable, but the soft signals at the end of the session shouldn't be ignored.
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ServantOfSatoshi
· 12-11 09:13
A divergent market is just a breeding ground for cutting leeks. Don't chase the highs, wait and see.
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MetaEggplant
· 12-09 21:38
Let it diverge if it wants to; just stick with those few group stocks and stop messing around.
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AirdropChaser
· 12-09 21:37
The divergence is too severe; broad-based gains are simply out of the question. We still need to carefully select a few sectors to get in.
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BearMarketGardener
· 12-09 21:30
Brokerages can still hold up today, but don’t overestimate the profit-making effect. The real market rally hasn’t arrived yet.
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JustHereForAirdrops
· 12-09 21:23
I've seen this kind of divergent market action many times. Brokerages and tech stocks take turns getting hyped, and retail investors are always chasing from behind. The long-short ratio on the ChiNext is already 1.5 and you're still going heavy? Wake up, man.
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MevShadowranger
· 12-09 21:22
The divergence is too obvious, it's really hard to predict this kind of market. Brokerages surge for a bit and then weaken, feels like the main players are just testing the waters.
I looked at the market yesterday, and today it's highly likely to keep rising, but don’t expect a broad rally—right now we’re seeing a differentiated trend. During yesterday’s high-volume rebound, the brokerage sector led the charge with tech stocks supporting on the side. Although things softened a bit towards the close, overall the profit-making effect was still pretty obvious.
There probably won’t be any big moves before mid-December; there might be some pullbacks during this period, but nothing too deep. Want to see an accelerated rally by year-end? I think that’s unlikely. For those who didn’t significantly increase positions before last Thursday, I really wouldn’t recommend heavily chasing highs this week.
Over in the US market, the three major indexes dipped slightly yesterday. Large tech stocks were mixed: Tesla dropped over 3%, Google also fell more than 2%; meanwhile, Broadcom rose more than 2%, Nvidia was up 1% during the session and continued to climb more than 2% after hours. Memory chip stocks collectively strengthened, with Micron Technology surging over 4%.
Chinese concept stocks were also mixed: Baidu rose over 3%, XPeng gained 2.6%, and NetEase fell more than 2%.
In commodity futures, gold fell $23/oz, and oil futures dropped more than 2%.
Looking at the long-short ratio data, it increased yesterday, all above 1.0, with the bulls in control, which is favorable for a rebound. The long-short ratio for the ChiNext Index is greater than 1.5, which means it’s time to consider reducing positions. However, even though the CSI 500 sector closed higher, its long-short ratio actually dropped—which suggests main funds are showing signs of retreat, so be alert.