There’s an important data release to watch at 11 PM tonight—the US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) for September is about to be announced, with the market generally expecting 2.9%.

This number is crucial.

If the actual data comes in higher than 2.9%, that could spell trouble. Inflationary pressure would still be present, and the Fed might maintain its hawkish stance or even raise expectations for further rate hikes. In this scenario, capital will become more cautious, risk assets will fall out of favor, and the crypto market will likely come under pressure as well.

On the other hand, what if the data comes in lower than expected? That’s a different story. Cooling inflation increases the likelihood of rate cuts, the dollar weakens, and liquidity may flow back into the market. For crypto assets, this could be a decent catalyst, with prices likely to see a rebound.

In short, tonight’s data is worth paying close attention to.