Something interesting happened recently—the Trump Epstein files being made public actually turned into a betting market on Polymarket.

Legally, the files are supposed to be released by December 19, but guess what the market thinks? Right now, the odds of them being released on time are only 56%. Even crazier, a big player with the ID VT2025 dropped nearly $2,000 betting that they won’t come out by the end of the year. They’ve really turned a political event into a guessing game.

But honestly, for regular people like us, these kinds of markets are way too risky.

Prediction markets like Polymarket have all sorts of complicated settlement rules, and it’s easy to get caught out. Betting real money on political outcomes? That’s not investing, that’s pure luck.

Instead of focusing on events with sky-high uncertainty, it makes more sense to pay attention to the crypto market itself. For example, traditional institutions are starting to enter in a big way. That long-term capital inflow trend is way more reliable than guessing whether politicians will follow the rules. Or look at which exchanges, custodians, or related ETFs might benefit if the Fed is expected to cut rates—those are real, actionable opportunities.

Plus, with the end of the year approaching, market volatility could spike at any time. It’s smart to keep some cash on hand so if there’s a panic sell-off or a major dip, you can jump in and buy at a discount.

It’s fine to watch the drama, but don’t treat entertainment news as an investment guide. In crypto, staying alive is way more valuable than making one lucky bet. Be patient, wait for the right moment, and don’t rush.