Tonight’s ADP data at 21:15 could be much more important than you think.

Why?

Because both this month’s Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI are missing, making this “mini-NFP” the only lifeline the market can grasp. Now, December rate cut expectations are already at their peak, but whether the Fed actually dares to make a move depends entirely on tonight’s employment report.

If the data is weak:
The market will immediately interpret it as “employment can’t hold up, it’s time to rescue the market,” rate cut bets will intensify, and crypto and gold will likely pump first.

If the data beats expectations:
It’s the opposite—“employment is so solid, why cut rates?” Assets could pull back directly from their highs.

Simply put, tonight is a watershed moment.

The market may not go wild, but volatility will definitely rise. If you have positions, remember to manage your risk in advance; if you’re still watching from the sidelines, focus on the first reaction of the 21:15 candlestick before deciding whether to jump in.

Don’t front-run, but don’t miss out either.