2025-12-09 19:14:35

BTC plunged from over 90,000 to 85,000—can you guess who's really behind it?

Don’t blame those so-called meetings—the real trigger was in Japan. The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds quietly climbed to 1.1%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Sounds like no big deal? But insiders know this means the world’s largest "free money pool" is about to shut its doors.

For the past decade-plus, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at zero. Institutions frantically borrowed low-cost yen, swapped it for dollars to buy US Treasuries and tech stocks, and threw in some BTC for good measure. This play is known as the yen carry trade—borrowing costs next to nothing, profits are huge, and even losses don’t really hurt. Crypto markets? Just a small player in this bigger chain.

Now, the tables have turned: Japanese inflation is surging, and expectations for rate hikes are heating up.

Here comes the chain reaction:

• Arbitrage costs are soaring, squeezing profit margins
• Yen appreciation means it takes more dollars to buy back yen when repaying loans
• Institutions are panic-selling assets to raise cash—US stocks, gold, BTC, all taking a hit

BTC is tanking the hardest not because of technical breakdowns, but because it’s the most liquid and easiest to cash out.

Stop fixating on Fed rate cuts—those are just band-aids on the wound. A rate hike in Japan is the real move that pulls the plug! If the Fed cuts rates while Japan hikes, that one-two punch could blow up your positions.

Two key dates:
✔ December 10: Fed rate decision
✔ December 19: Bank of Japan policy meeting

Don’t rush to buy the dip or chase rallies in the short term. Real trading pros spend 90% of their time on the sidelines, waiting for clear opportunities before making a move. The market is dancing on a knife’s edge—we all need to stay cautious.

BTC0.46%

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fren.eth

· 12-12 07:13

Japan's recent moves are indeed aggressive; when arbitrage trading collapses, the entire chain follows suit, and we retail investors become the bagholders. --- Wait, is the dual impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and Japan's rate hikes? Will the rebound after this drop be even more fierce? --- Held my position for two months, and just before I could seize the bottom opportunity, I started bleeding. Truly insane. --- Liquidity is the best, so it's falling the hardest. Logically, there's no problem with that, but doesn't that mean our BTC is the easiest to be hammered? Haha. --- These two December meetings feel like time bombs—ridiculous. --- So, the ones who truly make money are those who can understand macroeconomics; we're still guessing ups and downs while they're playing arbitrage.

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MEVSupportGroup

· 12-12 06:25

Japan's move is really ruthless; arbitrage trading has flipped over. --- So now, bottom-fishing is just like giving away money; wait and see. --- Anyone who understands arbitrage knows that the yen's appreciation is a big deal. --- Federal Reserve rate cuts? That's hilarious. Japan's rate hikes are the real killer move. --- Liquidity is the best and easiest to convert, so BTC is the first to be affected, it's tough. --- Instead of chasing the market rally, it's better to stay quiet and observe, really. --- Spend 90% of the time watching the market and 10% placing orders—that's the way to survive. --- The Bank of Japan is really quietly doing big things. --- Dancing on the tip of a sword, without strong resolve, you'll really mess up.

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LiquidityWhisperer

· 12-10 15:12

Japan's hand played so aggressively, the arbitrage trade was forcibly cut off I'm a bit worried about the two meetings in December, I feel there might still be a decline Wait, so we've been working for the Bank of Japan all along? 90,000 to 85,000 is nothing, the real bloodbath is still ahead It's better to stay on the sidelines; those who act at times like these are all cannon fodder

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FlashLoanKing

· 12-09 19:38

Japan’s latest move is really something else. The arbitrage trades broke down, and they’re basically using BTC as an ATM. The era of “dumb money” is over; now it’s just a matter of who can hold out until the end of December. After this round, I’m going to lose another tens of thousands. Life is really tough. Instead of trying to catch the bottom, it’s better to just wait and see. It’s not like a little time will make a difference. The article is fine, just a bit cliché. The yen appreciation was already expected. Let’s wait until the Fed and the Bank of Japan have played their cards. Right now, everyone buying in is just cannon fodder.

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HappyMinerUncle

· 12-09 19:38

Japan’s move this time is really something... As soon as arbitrage costs go up, institutions have to run and dump coins. I’ve already made up my mind—just waiting for the meeting on December 19 to see the outcome.

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Blockwatcher9000

· 12-09 19:38

Japan is actually the real culprit. I was wondering what was going on—the whole arbitrage trade collapses if the chain breaks. It's a slap in the face for those who watch the Fed all day. Now you get it, right? The yen appreciation move is brilliant, institutions are forced to frantically cut their losses, and BTC is the best thing to sell because they have no choice. Let's wait and see, check again on December 19, and don't get rekt as a retail investor. I always thought I was betting on the Fed, turns out Japan is the main player. Now it's worse—you need more dollars to pay off debt, no wonder institutions are fleeing. Ninety percent of true trading pros are sleeping, the remaining ten percent are losing money. Once the arbitrage chain breaks, even BTC goes down with it—the most liquid asset suffers the most.

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failed_dev_successful_ape

· 12-09 19:37

Japan really pulled a wild move this time; the collapse of arbitrage trading dragged down the entire market... Wait, how did I never think of this angle before? So the Fed cutting rates actually doesn’t help? That logic feels a bit counterintuitive. Institutions dumping BTC is definitely the fastest way to recover funds, since the liquidity is right there. Gotta keep an eye on those two meetings in December—feels like there’s more to come. Don’t rush to buy the dip, better to wait and see. I honestly can’t read the market right now, feels like any news could trigger an explosion. I really hadn’t considered the yen appreciation angle before; learned something new today. This time, I seriously need to wait for some certainty before making a move, or else it’s easy to get wiped out.

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UnluckyLemur

· 12-09 19:37

Japan really isn't playing fair here. Once the arbitrage chain breaks, everything's totally screwed. --- So the real culprit is the yen rate hike, the Fed's little rate cuts can't stop the bleeding at all. --- Wait, wait, wait, are institutions dumping hard right now to recover losses? No wonder BTC is taking such a beating. --- That line about "watching from the sidelines 90% of the time" really hit home for me. I'm exactly the fool who chases gains and sells at losses every day. --- With the Bank of Japan pulling this move, it feels like global assets are all going down with it.

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blocksnark

· 12-09 19:35

Japan really pulled a brilliant move here; with the arbitrage chain broken, no one can escape. Wait, so the logic here is that BTC is the bag holder? If 90% are on the sidelines, does that mean I should get in now... No one ever mentioned the yen time bomb; only now are people realizing it. It’s another round of big institutions harvesting retail investors, as usual. Those two dates in December are critical—I need to watch my positions closely.

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GasFeeLover

· 12-09 19:27

Oh damn, Japan really pulled off a killer move this time. The arbitrage blew up and dragged BTC down. --- Got it, got it, it’s the yen’s fault again. These institutions are really shady. --- No way, rate cuts aren’t enough, and now we’re getting hammered by Japan too. That’s brutal. --- Wait, so this means the Fed’s rate cuts can’t save us at all... --- I was wondering why BTC suddenly crashed—it was all because of arbitrage liquidations. --- Those two dates in December are definitely risky. I’m staying out of it for now. --- So now it’s all about the most liquid assets getting dumped like crazy. --- This move by the Bank of Japan is really a hidden killer. The market didn’t even have time to react before it got wrecked. --- I bet 5 bucks the BOJ will dump on us again at the meeting on the 19th.

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