In the early hours of this Thursday, the entire global crypto community will be watching one key moment—3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11.

The Fed’s 2025 grand finale is here. This FOMC rate meeting will directly determine where your Bitcoin and Ethereum go next. CME data is already clear: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has jumped to 89.6%, and the interest rate is most likely to fall within the 3.50%-3.75% range. The market is betting on easing, and sentiment is at its peak.

At 3:30 AM, Powell will hold a press conference. Don’t underestimate this speech—any casual hint about rate cuts in 2026 could cause massive waves. You need to listen closely—will he pour cold water on expectations for next year’s rate cuts? Wall Street is already betting on two more cuts in March and June next year.

Why are they daring to predict three consecutive cuts? The data says it all: unemployment among 20- to 24-year-olds has risen to 8.5%, and the job market is clearly cooling; in September, core PCE inflation dropped to 2.8%, so price pressures are easing. Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs have also shifted to support rate cuts—easing seems almost certain.

But don’t get too excited just yet. Right now, the FOMC is split 4 doves to 4 hawks—there’s a big divide. Nomura predicts there could be four dissenting votes, and the hawks could strike back at any time. Next year’s voting members Harker and Bostic—one a hawk, one cautious—their upcoming statements will set the tone for the entire year.

Remember the lesson from history? After the rate cut in September, $1.7 billion in long positions were liquidated. The tragedy of “buy the rumor, sell the news” happened just a few months ago. If there really is a cut this time, will funds flood in for another rally? Or will a surge in dissenting votes cause the market to reverse instantly?

Do you think BTC and ETH will rally again on this wave of rate cuts, or will we see a repeat of September’s crash? Will Powell slap everyone in the face?