This interest rate meeting, I think, will be the most difficult decision moment of the year.

The market is very divided right now—traders are almost certain there will be a 25 basis point cut, but the latest economic data is still sending tightening signals. This split has made price movements completely unpredictable.

My view? The rate cut itself isn’t actually the key. What can really shake up the market is the tone of the chairman’s speech. We saw this last year—it wasn’t the policy decision that crashed the market, it was those ambiguous statements at the press conference that drove everyone crazy.

These days, I’ll be watching BTC closely in the 86 to 92 range. We saw a similar consolidation in 2021. Everyone was waiting for the “big day,” but the real move broke out a day early. Back then I was too eager to jump in and got stuck, taking losses for nothing. This time I’ve learned my lesson—I won’t act on impulse again.

My approach is simple:
First, watch volatility changes. Especially now, with ETF funds still flowing in, the market’s reaction to “expectations” is much more intense than its reaction to actual “results.” If there really is a rate cut and the post-meeting speech is dovish, major coins will likely see a sharp rally; but I won’t rush to buy the dip—I’ll wait for a clear signal. In this market, survival is always more valuable than being one step ahead.

This week could really set the direction.
If the Fed’s stance softens, there might be some short-term relief, but for a true trend reversal, we’ll need to see if the subsequent macro data can keep up.

That’s all for my thoughts—let’s see who gets the last laugh this round.