Something strange has happened in the last three years: while the S&P 500 soared by 82%, the Fed's balance sheet shrank by 27%. This is a scenario that defies market logic.

This week, everyone is talking about a rate cut. It is predicted with an 86% probability that rates will be cut by 25 basis points. But the real question is: as economic pressures mount and signals of leadership changes emerge at the Fed, can the policy path really be predicted?

Interestingly, the fact that stocks have risen so much during a period of monetary tightening turns classical liquidity theories upside down. The situation of "less money but higher prices" makes us question long-accepted market rules. Perhaps the relationship between liquidity and asset prices is not as simple as we thought.