People always say that central bank easing is good news for the crypto space, but the truth isn’t that simple.

Last September, when there was a 0.25% rate cut, $977 million flowed into digital asset products, yet BTC barely moved. On the other hand, when the rate cut expectation surged above 80% in December, the price of BTC shot up directly from $84,000 to $93,000, and ETH climbed from $2,800 to $3,200. See the pattern? Often, expectations are more effective than actual rate cuts.

Capital flows are also quite practical. BTC and ETH are always the top choices, and most of the new money piles into them. As for those small coins without much of a fundamental story? No matter how loose the broader environment gets, they still underperform, and their gains can’t even compare.

What’s even tougher is that positive news can be offset by other negative events at any time. If, for example, there’s a rate cut but suddenly regulation tightens, or there’s infighting within the Federal Reserve, the market can still drop. Just like at the end of last year—rate cut expectations were heating up, but then regulators in some regions cracked down, causing BTC to plunge nearly 8% in a single day. It only gradually recovered later thanks to continued easing expectations.

So, while rate cuts do bring more liquidity and risk appetite, they are by no means a mindless “go long” signal.