The end of the year is here again, and soon everyone will be flooded with 2026 crypto market outlooks from all sorts of institutions.

But before rushing to check out the new predictions, let’s take a look back—how did last year’s bold forecasts actually turn out? After all, anyone can talk big, but accuracy is what really counts.

Think back to the end of 2024, when market sentiment was off the charts. Bitcoin had just broken $100,000, and everyone was shouting about the bull market. How wild were those predictions back then?

BTC to $200,000, stablecoin market cap doubling, AI agents revolutionizing on-chain interactions, a parade of crypto unicorns going public... Just reading them got the adrenaline pumping. Now, a year later, how did those forecasts score against reality?

We dug up predictions from several representative institutions and big-name KOLs, comparing each one to what actually happened to see whose crystal ball was clearer.

**VanEck: Only 1 out of 10 predictions came true, worrying hit rate**

VanEck put out 10 predictions at the end of last year, but only got the one about Bitcoin being used as a strategic reserve right.

The other nine? Total misses. And not just close misses—completely off in the wrong direction.

For instance, they said the market would peak in Q1, Bitcoin would hit $180,000, and set new highs by year-end. What happened? Both timing and price targets were way off.

Their market size forecasts were clearly too optimistic, too. They predicted tokenized securities would reach $50 billion, but in reality it hovered around $30–35 billion; for DeFi TVL, they called for $200 billion...