Less than one hour remains until the release of the US September Core PCE data (tonight at 23:00).

Let’s first look at two sets of data comparisons—

The FedWatch tool shows: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87.2%, while the probability of holding steady is only 12.8%.
On the Polymarket prediction market, the probability of a 25bp rate cut has soared to 93%.

Interestingly, just two weeks ago, the odds of “no rate cut” once surpassed those of a “25bp rate cut,” and market sentiment cooled accordingly. But recently, the situation has changed: the Fed has repeatedly sent dovish signals, and several macroeconomic data points have supported the rate cut path, pulling market expectations back.

Why is this PCE data so crucial? Because it’s the last major indicator before next week’s FOMC meeting, and it could directly influence the Fed’s final decision.

For the crypto market, this data window could amplify volatility.