Something big is happening on Wall Street this Friday—the September PCE inflation data is about to be released, and traders around the world are glued to their screens waiting for this "reassurance pill."

U.S. stocks have recently rebounded to near historical highs, but the market is still very jittery. Why? Because all kinds of data are contradicting each other: the ADP employment report shows hiring is cooling down, the consumer confidence index is dropping, and it looks like the economy is heading for a downturn. But on the flip side, corporate earnings season has been impressive, and Black Friday sales data have exploded, with both online and offline shopping going wild. So, what’s really going on?

Mark Hackett, strategist at Nationwide, put it bluntly: "Those soft data points are totally unreliable—PCE is what really tells the story." This inflation indicator, which the Fed cares about most, might be the key to clearing up all the confusion. The market generally expects core PCE monthly growth to be at 0.2%, with the annual rate holding around 2.8%—but who knows, sometimes forecasts are just a joke.

What’s even crazier is that even though inflation data might still be strong, traders are already betting wildly that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, with an 87% probability! Natixis analyst Janasiewicz offered an explanation: policymakers are now more worried about a collapse in the job market than about inflation. So they might "ignore" lagging inflation data and step in early to save the market.

Right now, the bulls and bears are at each other's throats. If the PCE data comes in higher than expected, the stock market could take a hit; but if inflation really cools down, the rally could take off directly. It’s the same story for the crypto market—ETH and other major coins will still be heavily influenced by these macro numbers in the short term.

At 11 PM Beijing time tonight, we'll have the answer. Hold your breath.