#数字货币市场洞察 "Is making money in the crypto world really all about luck?"

Some friends have asked me this question. My answer is: luck is only on the surface—preparation is the essence.

Let’s talk about the recent market trends. In December, when $BTC was repeatedly fluctuating around the $90,000 mark, the market put on two completely different shows: some people made a killing, while others got liquidated. It may seem like luck is at play, but in reality, it’s about the ability to respond.

The contrast between two friends of mine illustrates this point perfectly.

When BTC rebounded from $83,000 in November, Xiao Wang was overwhelmed by FOMO and went all-in without a second thought, not even considering what stop-loss means. Xiao Li, on the other hand, waited for the RSI to return to the neutral range, and only started building positions in batches after seeing a golden cross on the MACD. He also kept 30% of his funds as emergency capital. That’s the difference.

Last week, the Fed’s rate cut expectations pushed the market up to $92,000. Xiao Wang got greedy and didn’t take profits in advance; when the price corrected to $89,000, he was wiped out completely—his account was a mess. Xiao Li stuck to his plan, gradually reducing his position around $91,000, securing his gains, and used his reserved funds to buy back at the support level. This in-and-out approach is the mark of a professional.

Now $BTC 24-hour trading volume has surpassed $315.4 billion, and whales have been steadily accumulating in the $85,000-$88,000 range. To put it plainly, this opportunity will only go to those who have done their homework.

I often hear people attribute others’ gains to "good luck," but that argument just doesn't hold up. A good trading strategy is like a precision trap—you need clear entry signals and defined take-profit/stop-loss lines, so that you stay calm during volatile swings. Capital management is your safety net; how you allocate funds is crucial. Professional investors divide their capital into several parts—small amounts to test new ideas, large amounts for confirmed trends—so a single pullback won’t wipe them out.

In the crypto world, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Instead of relying on luck, it’s better to hone your trading strategy, standardize your capital allocation, and understand market psychology. When that real big trend hits, those who are prepared will be the ones to catch their share of the profits.