Yesterday, the US jobless claims data was explosive—the initial claims dropped straight to 191,000, way below expectations. And Bitcoin? Still grinding around $92,000, with bulls and bears wrestling it out.

Honestly, with employment data this strong, the risk of a hard landing for the economy is definitely lower. But here’s the problem: will the Fed still cut rates in December? Right now, the interest rate futures market is pricing in an 86% chance of a rate cut, but with the labor market this hot, does the Fed really dare to loosen up? If Powell suddenly turns hawkish, BTC might have to retest the $88,000–$90,000 support zone in the short term.

The key is whether it can break $100,000. If it breaks through and holds above, that would mean breaking out of the downtrend channel since November. If not? Then it stays in the range.

With data clashing like this, I think volatility strategies are more reliable. Until a breakout happens, trading within the range is probably the safer bet.