Since November 21, after hitting a bottom at 80,600, BTC has started a volatile upward consolidation trend. With the Fed about to cut interest rates, is quantitative easing and liquidity injection real or not? Will the subsequent market continue upwards for another bull run, or will it break downwards and head firmly into a bear market?

Here are some of my humble opinions:
First, a successful rate cut is certainly positive, but it’s not enough to change the overall trend. That means the previously mentioned bear market scenario will not be altered just because of a rate cut. At best, there might be a brief rally a few hours before the rate cut, but after the news comes out the market will continue to fall.

Second, liquidity injection will provide a lot of liquidity to the market, and this is the real, huge positive. If the news turns out to be true, there is a high chance for another bull run. However, timing is very important. Even if liquidity is injected, it won’t all enter the market at once; it will be gradual. So in my view, even if we do see another major bull run and reach new historical highs, it will likely happen after the Lunar New Year.

In short, whatever the market does, we should only take the highest probability trades. Currently, I think the best short entry is at 96,000. This is a key trading zone, the upper edge of the channel, and also where it hits resistance at the Vegas channel’s midline. Entering a short at this level, aiming for a 6,000-point move, should be achievable.

For DOT, there is also a small structure entry. Around 86,500 is the lower edge of the channel. The secondary move isn’t finished, so at this level there should be another rebound.

Brothers, don’t mistake intraday trading luck for skill! Only take action at key structures!
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