If tonight’s CPI data turns out to be a shocker, the coins in your hand might really have to lie flat.

To be honest, the market doesn’t actually care about whether rates will be cut or not—everyone already assumes there will be a cut, the only debate is whether it’ll be 50 or 25 basis points. But there’s a fatal issue everyone is conveniently ignoring: what if the inflation data suddenly surprises on the upside?

Recently, PPI has been trending lower and employment data is cooling off, so the market is already high, pricing in rate cuts ahead of time. This crypto rebound looks strong, but it’s really just hanging on by the thread of “liquidity is coming.” The problem is, if core services inflation unexpectedly jumps above 3.6%, the Fed could flip faster than turning a page—pausing rate cuts or even restarting hikes are both real possibilities. If that happens, the dominoes will fall, and crypto assets, being high-risk, will definitely be the first to get dumped.

Let me lay out the three possible scenarios:

Data comes in below expectations? Then it’s party time. Liquidity will flood in, Bitcoin shooting to $45,000 is no dream, and altcoins will catch up too—consider buying quality assets on any dips.

Data meets expectations? The Fed will likely cut by 25 basis points. The market will churn for a bit as emotions settle, but the overall trend will still be up, so don’t mess with your positions.

Data exceeds expectations? Then get ready to be dumped on or cut your losses. Liquidity expectations will collapse, risk-off sentiment will surge, and in crypto there will be no winners.

Eight years of watching the data hasn’t been for nothing—the core of this game right now is liquidity expectations vs. inflation reality. Miss this key moment tonight, and you might not even get scraps next week.