Recently, I've noticed Buffett significantly reducing his holdings in US stocks and hoarding cash, and a lot of people in the market are bearish on US stocks because of this. But I think Buffett’s move might be more sophisticated than it appears on the surface.

Let’s look at it from another perspective:

If AI really is a bubble—then if the stock market crashes, Buffett will be sitting on a pile of cash, ready to buy undervalued assets at bargain prices.

If AI isn’t a bubble—that’s when the real “big reshuffle” happens. Think about it: when AI truly matures, the vast majority of companies in the world will be eliminated, and in the end, maybe less than 1% of AI giants will monopolize 99% of global profits. This isn’t science fiction—there are already special effects studios and advertising companies in the US going bankrupt because of AI. At this rate, traditional value stocks will inevitably suffer sooner or later. Buffett cashing out at the top right now is a textbook example of taking profits.

The reality is probably more complicated—maybe 70% of regions will see the first scenario, and 30% will go to the latter extreme. But whatever happens, Buffett’s decision holds up.

Sometimes, the smartest move isn’t betting on a particular direction, but making sure you don’t lose out no matter which way things go.