CME's data is quite interesting—the probability of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting in 7 days has soared to 87%. Even more crucially, a couple of days ago, the former president publicly announced his pick for the next Fed chair, and it's a textbook dove (after all, that's his hard requirement for the role).
In recent days, the crypto market has been rising alongside US stocks, driven by two core reasons: a possible real rate cut in December, and a dovish Fed chair taking over in May next year. Just look at the net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—capital is literally voting with real money. But honestly, the current inflow volume can't compare to the previous peaks.
So, for those who bought the dip, my personal suggestion is to take some profits when appropriate. My impression of this rally is that the bullish news has already been priced in. And even if Powell is really forced to cut rates this time, he's still very likely to make hawkish comments in the latter half.
My judgment might not be 100% accurate, but when it comes to trading, you have to be responsible for your own money. A small profit is better than a big loss, right?
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FarmToRiches
· 12-09 17:48
An 87% probability sounds impressive, but it's only real when it actually lands in your pocket.
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BlockDetective
· 12-09 13:55
An 87% probability of a rate cut… sounds great, but I feel like half the money has already left, so people chasing the top now should be careful.
The saying "take profits when you can" is spot on—once the good news is priced in, what’s left is the risk of people cashing out.
A dovish chair is definitely bullish, but once Powell makes a hawkish statement later, this rally might just reverse. Let’s see who can still hold their ground then.
The problem is, who even dares to go all-in now? ETF net inflows have dried up, which shows the smart money is already heading for the exit.
Rather than bet on more upside, it’s better to lock in profits now—after all, we’ve made enough from this round already.
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zkNoob
· 12-09 13:55
87% probability sounds pretty impressive, but looking at the ETF net inflows data... there really isn't much hype.
Anyway, take some profits and get out, don't be too greedy. We've seen plenty of markets where the good news gets priced in early.
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PumpStrategist
· 12-09 13:55
I trust the 87% probability, but that number itself is a signal—too many people have noticed it. When the chips are highly concentrated, that's when you need to be cautious, isn't it?
The inflow volume can't compare to the peak period, and that's the key point. It means the hype is cooling down, so don't let the gains blind you.
As for "taking profits and playing it safe," I have to question that. Those who can truly let go would have exited long before it hit 87%. Most people saying this now are probably just comforting themselves.
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WalletDetective
· 12-09 13:49
An 87% probability sounds pretty tempting, but I can't shake the feeling that this is just a "false prosperity before the other shoe drops"... The inflow of funds already tells the story.
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SatoshiChallenger
· 12-09 13:43
87% probability? Ha, the data shows the last time certainty was this high was three years ago, and what happened then?
"Take profits when you can" sounds reasonable, but those who really make big gains are never the ones who cash out early—ironic, isn't it?
ETF net inflows have plunged straight down compared to historical peaks. That detail says it all, but no one wants to admit it.
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DaisyUnicorn
· 12-09 13:41
87% probability sounds pretty tempting, but the more beautiful the flowers bloom, the more you should be wary of storms. I know all too well about good news being priced in early—I fell for it here last year. Seriously, take profits when you can, don't wait until the hawks speak up and regret it later.
CME's data is quite interesting—the probability of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting in 7 days has soared to 87%. Even more crucially, a couple of days ago, the former president publicly announced his pick for the next Fed chair, and it's a textbook dove (after all, that's his hard requirement for the role).
In recent days, the crypto market has been rising alongside US stocks, driven by two core reasons: a possible real rate cut in December, and a dovish Fed chair taking over in May next year. Just look at the net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—capital is literally voting with real money. But honestly, the current inflow volume can't compare to the previous peaks.
So, for those who bought the dip, my personal suggestion is to take some profits when appropriate. My impression of this rally is that the bullish news has already been priced in. And even if Powell is really forced to cut rates this time, he's still very likely to make hawkish comments in the latter half.
My judgment might not be 100% accurate, but when it comes to trading, you have to be responsible for your own money. A small profit is better than a big loss, right?