#ETH走势分析 Everyone, don’t let these hourly-level fluctuations lull you to sleep!

I just tracked $ETH’s 1-hour chart and took another look at the real-time on-chain flows. Honestly—gave me chills. All the pullback signals are here. Jumping in now is no different than catching a falling knife.

The technicals are glaring: price is stuck dead at 3135, with the iron gate at 3138.87 overhead. Three attempts and still no breakthrough. The candlestick patterns show no upward momentum, MACD’s DIF and DEA are almost hugging the zero line, and the red bars keep shrinking—this isn’t brewing for a breakout, it’s running out of steam. First support below is at 3100; if that breaks, it’s straight down to 3080.

On-chain data tells another story: whale addresses have been quietly offloading in the last 24 hours, exchange inflows are climbing, smart money is already out, and retail is still buying in. I’ve seen this play out too many times.

Macro conditions aren’t helping either: rate hike expectations are rising again, and the overall capital flow in crypto is slowing down. $ETH has lacked any new catalysts recently, with the ETF hype long since priced in—it’s purely a game of sentiment now.

My take is straightforward: a washout pullback is inevitable in the short term. Don’t talk to me about “sideways for long means up”—sideways at resistance just means the market’s weak. I’d rather wait for it to drop and pick up those bloodied chips, never chase highs at times like this.

I know some will disagree and think I’m too bearish. But trading relies on data and discipline, not feelings. I’ve run through this scenario countless times, and all the current signals match my expectations. Believe it or not, the market will show you.

Remember this: survive and you’re already a winner—wait for the wind!