A recent industry report has sparked heated discussion—it predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, while also casting doubt on the long-standing “four-year cycle” theory. The reason? The structure of market participants has fundamentally changed.

Institutional capital is pouring in through ETFs and corporate reserves, and this force is reshaping the price discovery mechanism. BitMine CEO Tom Lee has even boldly predicted that January next year could be a critical turning point. In this situation, those who mechanically apply historical cycles may need to re-examine their investment frameworks.

The market rules are indeed being rewritten. Looking at historical data, it’s clear that deep corrections of more than 25% are actually common during bull markets. But the problem is—most people’s trading logic hasn’t kept pace with the evolution of the market. Panic selling and FOMO buying get replayed in every cycle.

So how should strategies be adjusted?

First, understand the fundamental differences between institutional and retail approaches. Big money is allocated to compliant ETF products and long-term holdings; frequent short-term trading is hard to profit from due to information asymmetry and capital scale. Studying mainstream digital asset investment tools is much more reliable than blindly chasing pumps and dumps on various platforms.

Second, the macro environment is the real driver of prices. The Fed’s monetary policy moves, countries’ attitudes toward crypto regulation—these factors carry much more weight than signals from technical indicators. Instead of staring at minute charts every day, it’s better to pay more attention to macroeconomic data releases.

There’s also a counterintuitive fact: every major drop is often a window for chip redistribution. When panic is widespread, some are cutting losses and exiting, while others are calmly building positions. The market won’t change its long-term trend because of emotional swings, but the cognitive gap will determine what role you play in a bull market.

To be frank—price movements are never determined by the number of participants, but by the quality and direction of capital. The risk you see may be the opportunity others seize. The next time the market experiences sharp volatility, will you choose to be a slave to emotion or a calm observer? That’s a question every investor should think hard about.