#美联储重启降息步伐 The divergence in global central bank monetary policies is intensifying, and this time, Bitcoin is taking center stage.

On the Fed’s side, the long-awaited rate cut is about to drop. The market widely expects a more than 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, but the real test hasn’t arrived—the question isn’t “will they cut,” but rather how they’ll cut. If there’s any hint of a “hawkish cut” (a cut accompanied by signals of no further easing), $BTC will inevitably face short-term pressure. Investors are all waiting for a clear direction on liquidity, and this signal will determine the market’s next rhythm.

More crucially, the Bank of Japan’s stance has already shifted. The probability of a rate hike has soared to 76%, which means the decades-old yen carry trade model could be about to reverse. Imagine—the era of global capital borrowing yen to go long on high-yield assets might be coming to an end. If this really happens, there will be major adjustments to international capital flows, and certain asset classes could either surge or crash; $ETH and other major cryptocurrencies will not be immune.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has actually become a new safe-haven asset in this process. The UAE sovereign wealth fund recently made a significant purchase of Bitcoin ETFs, which is quite telling—institutional investors are voting with their feet and treating digital assets as part of global macro allocation.

Short-term volatility is inevitable, but what’s more worth watching is that Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a marginal trading asset into a key player in global capital competition. This process is just beginning.