A major breaking news just dropped: the former Fed Vice Chair has publicly voiced support for the so-called "hawkish rate cut." The market instantly erupted, with calls for a bull market resurgence echoing everywhere. But hold on—do you really think this means unlimited easy money?

Take a closer look at what she actually said: **"Maybe cut one more time and then pause, with the core target for the next two years being to stick to 2% inflation."** In plain English: this rate cut isn't about flooding the market with liquidity, but rather a painkiller shot to prevent the economy from crashing too fast. As soon as the economic data shows any improvement, the liquidity tap could be tightened at any moment. Previous rate-cut cycles were like opening the floodgates, but this time? At most, it’s a few drops handed out with a dropper.

# The real danger is never the policy itself, but "consensus expectations"

When everyone is convinced that a rate cut = a weaker dollar = capital flowing into crypto, that's the biggest risk signal in itself. What are Wall Street veterans best at? **Using short-term bullish news to complete their final round of selling.** They'll leverage this "easing expectation" to push prices to emotional highs, and when retail investors excitedly chase the rally, the hawkish promise instantly becomes the needle that pops the bubble—there’s even a professional term for this playbook: **"expectation management harvesting."**

Don’t pop the champagne just because prices are up. It could just be the prelude to a bull trap.

# Three ways to break the deadlock

**1. Don’t fantasize about "sustained easing"**
Treat this potential rate cut as a technical adjustment, not the engine of a bull market. Policy shifts could happen much faster than you think.

**2. Keep a laser focus on two critical data points**
Non-farm payrolls + CPI inflation. These two numbers are the switches for the Fed’s stance. If jobs data strengthens or inflation proves stickier than expected, policy will flip instantly—faster than turning a page.

**3. Position management is your moat**
When expectations are murky, scaling in at lower levels is always better than going all-in at once. Keeping enough USDT on hand isn’t missing out on opportunities—it’s waiting for a more certain entry. Be patient, and strike precisely.

The market never lacks opportunities; what’s lacking are people who survive until those opportunities arrive.