Three Major US Economic Events. Bitcoin Experiences Another Massive Shock

The market has reached a critical point this week. Bitcoin is repeatedly testing around $93,000, with bulls and bears dancing on a knife’s edge. But instead of watching the candlestick chart, I’m focused on three upcoming “household matters” of the Federal Reserve that can directly unlock liquidity gates. My view is clear: Whether December marks a new bull market starting point depends on the upcoming data in the next few days.

1. Federal Reserve Year-End FOMC Meeting (Beijing Time, December 11, 03:00) $SOL
Keyword: Not “whether to cut rates,” but “what Powell will say”

Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have soared to nearly 90%—almost a foregone conclusion. But don’t forget, the Fed is best at “hawkish rate cuts”—cutting rates while talking tough to suppress market sentiment. In my opinion, the real storm this week centers on two points:
Dot plot expectations: If the Fed hints at a slower pace of rate cuts in 2026 (such as only three cuts instead of the market-expected four), the dollar may rebound, and Bitcoin may retest the $86,000 support;
Powell’s statement: If he emphasizes that “inflation is not fully resolved,” short-term panic is inevitable. But if he mentions downside economic risks, Bitcoin could take the opportunity to surge.

My strategy: Reduce leveraged positions before the decision, keep enough ammo. If Bitcoin holds above $95,000 one hour after the rate decision, consider going long; if it falls below $88,000, wait for a rebound to short.

2. Delayed Release of September PCE Inflation Data (Around December 10)
Keyword: The Fed’s favorite “inflation gauge,” determines policy confidence $BTC

September core PCE rose 2.8% year-over-year, which is old data, but due to the government shutdown, its delayed release makes it a “temporary reference” for the Fed’s decision. I think the market will focus on two details:
Month-over-month trend: If the MoM increase exceeds 0.3%, rate cut expectations may cool, and Bitcoin could give back recent gains;
Weak consumption signal: If September real personal consumption MoM is flat and the data confirms weakness, the Fed is more likely to firmly cut rates, boosting risk assets.

Watch out: If the data deviates significantly from expectations, it could magnify volatility. Especially with Bitcoin perpetual contracts’ open interest still as high as $78.7 billion, in a high-leverage environment, rapid surges and drops can trigger cascading liquidations.

3. JOLTS Job Openings Data (December 9, 22:00)
Keyword: Labor market “hidden cracks” are the Fed’s real weakness

US June JOLTS data already showed the hiring rate at an 8-month low, and this week will see the release of delayed September (and possibly October) data. I value this indicator because it directly reflects the economy’s “weak spot”:
If job openings remain below 7.5 million, it indicates slowing labor demand, giving the Fed more reason to cut rates;
But if the unemployment rate doesn’t rise significantly (stays below 4.4%), the Fed may continue to “drag its feet.”

My observation: Recently, dovish Fed officials (like Daly) have frequently stressed the “risk of sudden labor market deterioration,” hinting that if JOLTS weakens, it will strengthen expectations of easing and fuel a Bitcoin rebound. $ETH

Summary: My Trading Mindset This Week

Liquidity is king: The Fed ending QT and injecting $13.5 billion in liquidity is like a transfusion for the market, but short-term sentiment remains data-driven.
Beware of “sell-the-news”: If the Fed cuts rates but delivers hawkish signals, Bitcoin may repeat the December 1 flash crash (down over 4.7% in one day).
Not bearish long-term: Whale sell-offs and ETF outflows are pressure points, but they also flush out weak hands. Once the Fed’s pivot is confirmed, Bitcoin’s high beta means its rebound will be the strongest.
One last word of advice: Don’t bet on the data, and don’t hold onto losing positions. The market won’t close, but leverage will kick you out. Follow Ako for more first-hand crypto news and pinpoint market insights—become your compass in the crypto world. Learning is your greatest wealth.