Evening BTC Market Analysis

1. Macroeconomic Policy Vacuum: The anticipation of a Fed rate cut in December (probability 89.6%) clashes with concerns about "buy the rumor, sell the news" ahead of policy implementation. As a result, funds are hesitant to increase positions, leading to a sell-off after this morning's spike to $92,259.
2. Divergence in Capital Flows: There was a short-term net outflow of $195 million from ETFs (short-term risk aversion), but exchange balances hit a new low since 2017 (long-term institutional support), resulting in intense long-short position swapping.
3. Technical Range Lock: The daily MACD shows little momentum, 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and there is a lack of unilateral momentum. The main battle is concentrated within the $88,000-$92,300 range.
4. Sentiment and Liquidity: $280 million in liquidations over 24 hours, nearly 97,000 traders liquidated. Market sentiment is fragile, daytime liquidity is tightening, and volatility is concentrated around key support and resistance levels.

II. Trend Qualitative Analysis

Short-term: Cautiously range-bound with no clear unilateral trend. After losing the $90,000 psychological level, price is oscillating between the 20-day moving average ($89,370) and $91,000. With policy sensitivity and key level battles, sustained upward or downward momentum is unlikely, and a high-volatility consolidation pattern is expected.

III. Operational Targets

1. Long Strategy:
- Entry: $89,500–$90,000 (Bollinger mid-band + long cost zone)
- Stop loss: $88,000 (0.382 Fibonacci support, cut loss if breached)
- Target: $91,000–$91,500 (short-term resistance, take profit in batches)

2. Short Strategy:
- Entry: $91,000–$91,500 (previous pullback high + moving average resistance)
- Stop loss: $92,000 (upper intraday high, cut loss if breached)
- Target: $89,500–$89,000 (mid-band support, take profit at target)

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