#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 The scale of US short-term Treasury debt has swelled to $36.6 trillion, with short-term debt accounting for as much as 69%. In the past year alone, an insane $25.4 trillion in short-term Treasuries has been issued—in simple terms, it’s like using “monthly credit card payments” to cover a “30-year mortgage.” How extreme is this number? It means that if inflation rebounds and the Fed is forced to hike rates, interest costs will skyrocket instantly, and the debt spiral could immediately spin out of control. The US’s “inverted pyramid” debt structure is already starting to shake.

What does this mean for the crypto world? Three directions, straight to the point.

First is liquidity release. The Treasury’s debt binge is essentially about releasing dollar liquidity—it’s common sense that money flows to where it’s easiest. When dollar liquidity is abundant, non-yielding assets like BTC get a passive boost—this could trigger a “passive bull market” in crypto.

But here’s the dangerous side: if inflation really makes a comeback and the Fed has no choice but to raise rates, the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding tokens will soar, and risk assets could face a broad sell-off. Those playing with high leverage? They’ll get blown up on the spot. This is truly the harshest headwind for crypto.

The third dimension goes even deeper—a battle of trust. As more market participants start questioning the dollar system, capital faces a choice. Keep trusting the dollar and let money flow back into Treasuries? Or shift to decentralized assets, treating Bitcoin as the “new gold” or even a “sovereign-grade safe haven”? In the future, Bitcoin’s value proposition may no longer be as a risk asset, but as the ultimate safe haven outside the financial system.

For traders, the to-do list is clear: watch macro indicators like the CPI trend, the Fed’s dot plot, and the Treasury’s debt issuance plans. In terms of portfolio allocation, use $BTC for macro hedging while holding stablecoins as dry powder. Leverage is untouchable right now—it’s like playing with dynamite.

Prepare for two scenarios: one is the soft landing playbook, where the liquidity-driven rally continues; the other is a crisis break-out, where capital preservation comes first and you watch to see if $BTC truly evolves into a safe haven asset.

The dollar debt tsunami is rolling in. Bitcoin will either sink or become the Noah’s Ark of the next financial system. Real opportunity always belongs to those who stand firm in the storm.