I came across an interview late at night that instantly sobered up those friends who stare at the Fed's "dot plot" every day.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, put it bluntly: if the Fed were to lock in its interest rate plans for the next six months right now, that would be "irresponsible." In his view, the Fed Chair's job boils down to three things—watch the data, adjust policy, and provide explanations. In other words, don't expect any spoilers; taking it step by step is the right approach.

Why is this statement so impactful? Because Hassett is not just any official. The market widely considers him the top contender to succeed Powell as Fed Chair. Whatever he says now basically sets the tone for future policy.

The market reacted quickly. Some analysts pointed out that this "data-driven" stance is tougher than expected, and traders immediately lowered their rate-cut expectations for next year. See, that's real influence.

Of course, there's another contender, Kevin Warsh, who's also on the watchlist. He has previous Fed experience and is even more seasoned. In some ways, this competition is a contest between "political sensitivity" and "technocratic style."

For those of us watching the markets, Hassett's comments are an important reminder. Inflation data is still fluctuating, and the economic outlook remains uncertain. Betting on a fixed rate-cut path now carries significant risk.

Every move the Fed makes from here on out might really need to be, as he said, validated month by month and taken step by step. Rather than guessing where the finish line is, it's better to keep a close eye on every economic data release. After all, in this market, data is the biggest variable.