#美联储重启降息步伐 $ZEC $ALLO $LUNC

The Fed's power transition is imminent, yet the market remains surprisingly calm.

In May next year, Powell's term will come to an end, and Trump's chief economic advisor Kevin Hassett is likely to take over. It sounds dramatic, but traders are voting with real money—not panicking at all.

Why? Just look at how the market is betting.

**Rate cuts aren't as aggressive as imagined**

Currently, the market predicts that by the end of next year, the Fed will cut rates a total of 3 times, each by 25 basis points. Two of those cuts are likely to happen while Powell is still in office. By the time Hassett actually takes over, there may only be room for 1 more rate cut in the second half of 2026. That's quite different from the "substantial rate cuts" Trump is talking about.

**Inflation is the real boss**

The market logic is actually pretty straightforward. By the time the power transition happens, inflation will likely still be hovering around 3%. This means the real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation) could be close to zero. Think about it—what does a zero real interest rate mean? Monetary policy is already loose enough; further easing isn't really necessary.

In other words—

No matter who's in charge, bringing inflation down remains the top priority. The "substantial rate cuts" Trump is touting are mostly political posturing. Both the bond and stock markets shouldn't get too excited—there won't be a "flood of liquidity" next year.

**It all depends on inflation**

Will Hassett continue Powell's cautious approach or try something new? Ultimately, it depends on whether inflation data gives him the opportunity. Crypto folks, don't underestimate the impact of this logic on the market.

What do you think? Are 3 rate cuts next year enough? Let’s discuss in the comments.