#美联储降息预测

84% rate cut? The crypto crowd gets excited first, but I won’t make any rash moves

There are two things the crypto market fears most: rate hikes and “uncertainty.” Now, there’s good news—an 84% probability of a rate cut, clear direction, and stronger signs of policy shift, all of which are very friendly to risk assets.
Rebound? I think it’s coming, but not in “rocket mode”—it’ll be more like a “gradual liftoff.” That’s because the market has already priced in most of the rate cut expectations ahead of time. What can really spark a rally is whether the Fed is willing to continue cutting in the future.
So my strategy is clear:
① Short term: Buy low, get in and out quickly
During high volatility events, sentiment moves faster than logic.
② Medium term: Wait until “next year’s outlook” is confirmed before increasing positions
If the guidance is dovish, that’s the real trend trigger.
③ Altcoins: Only touch liquid narrative leaders
Avoid the “emotion roller coaster” of illiquid coins.

“A rate cut is the beginning, not the climax; the true climax is always in the guidance.”