#美联储降息预测

84% Rate Cut Expectation Looms, Should the Market Get Excited Early?

At 3:00 AM this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its final rate decision of the year. The market is pricing in as high as an 84% probability of a 25BP rate cut, which to the crypto world basically whispers: "Maybe some liquidity is coming your way." But will the market rebound? I believe it will, but not with an "instant explosive rally" pace.

The reason is simple: if the rate cut materializes, market sentiment will be ignited, but institutions typically won't rush in immediately. They'll wait for the data, for guidance, for details in Powell's speech. So the market is more like "the prelude starts, but the climax needs to wait."

In terms of strategy, I choose a "two-stage" approach:
① Light position ahead of the decision: Set up short-term positions in BTC and ETH to guard against an early rally.
② Add positions after the decision based on the guidance: If Powell's tone is dovish, it will be a resonance point for risk assets.

A rate cut is the spark, but the market needs wind—and that wind will most likely come from Powell's mouth.