December meeting: There is an overwhelming probability of nearly 90% that a rate cut will happen. This is basically a “done deal” with very little suspense.

January next year: The market is looking further ahead, with nearly a quarter probability that there will be a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points (which means two cuts). This shows that everyone not only believes a cut will happen this time, but also expects more cuts next year.

What does this mean for us?
Simply put, a rate cut means “money gets cheaper.” This is usually good news for risk markets like stocks and crypto. The market is already pricing in this “warm current.” Now, what you need to pay attention to is not whether there will be a cut, but “how the market will move after the rate cut.”
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