This week’s interest rate decision might be the toughest one of the year.

The market is really divided right now—everyone is shouting “definitely a 25 basis point cut,” but the latest data is still pretty tight. This kind of split makes pricing all over the place.

My take? Whether they cut or not isn’t the key point. The real key is what Powell says at the press conference. Everyone saw it last year, right? It’s not the decision itself that shakes the market, it’s his ambiguous comments that turn everything into mush.

These days, I’m glued to BTC’s 86-92 range. There was a similar sideways movement in 2021—everyone was waiting for “decision day,” but the real move exploded a day early. I was too impatient to get in back then and ended up getting trapped and stopped out. So this time, I won’t act impulsively.

Here’s what I’m planning to do:
First, I’ll watch volatility changes. Especially now, with ETF funds still flowing in, the market usually reacts more violently to “expectations” than to the actual “result.” If they really cut, and Powell sounds dovish at the press conference, major coins will probably pump fast; but I won’t buy the dip, I’ll wait for confirmation signals. This market has taught me one thing—surviving is way more important than making quick money.

This coming week could really be a turning point.
If the Fed turns dovish, there’ll be some relief in the short term; but for a sustained rally, we’ll still have to see if the upcoming macro data supports it.

That’s it—let’s see who laughs last this time.