#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: With the interest rate decision imminent, the current downside risk is significant. Be mindful of rapid price swings before Thursday. Beware of getting wiped out in a choppy market. If the price reaches 85,000-86,000 before the interest rate decision, I actually think the market risk will decrease.

2️⃣ Capital Flows & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics
Capital Flows: Mid- to long-term capital signals remain positive. Despite the short-term price drop, capital flows show institutions are still positioning. As of the week ending December 6, digital asset investment products (ETP/ETF) recorded $716 million in net inflows, with Bitcoin products attracting $352 million. Meanwhile, products shorting Bitcoin saw a large outflow of funds, indicating a weakening bearish sentiment in the market.
Regulatory Updates (Major Positive): The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially launched a pilot program allowing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others to be used as collateral in the derivatives market. This is a key step for digital assets integrating into the traditional financial system, paving the way for broader institutional use of cryptocurrencies and representing a long-term structural positive.
Exchange Dynamics: Market volatility has led to the liquidation of leveraged positions. In the past 24 hours, more than 96,000 traders were liquidated across the network, with a total amount reaching $280 million.

3️⃣ Intraday Trading Approach
Never try to catch the bottom. If there is a clear sign of price stalling in the 95,000-96,000 area (such as a double top or bearish engulfing pattern), and weakness is observed, we can consider entering a short position. Stop loss if 96,000 is decisively broken, target around 85,000.

4️⃣ Risk Warnings
Macroeconomic Policy Risk: The statements from the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting are the biggest variable for future market trends. Any unexpectedly "hawkish" signal (such as more caution on rate cuts) could exacerbate market declines.
Liquidity Risk: Before major events, market depth may deteriorate, making prices prone to rapid "flash crashes," which could trigger stop-losses unexpectedly.
Sentiment Reversal Risk: If the Fed releases a clear dovish signal, it could trigger a concentrated short squeeze, causing a sharp price rebound. Short sellers should beware of such reversal moves.