#美联储政策展望 Looking back at history, the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook has always affected market sentiment. Seeing the results of the Reuters survey today inevitably reminds me of the days following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, too, the market was full of expectations for the future, driven by economic recovery and technological innovation. But we must not forget that optimism is often the breeding ground for risk accumulation.

The S&P 500 Index is expected to rise about 12% by the end of 2026, and this forecast is indeed exciting. However, we need to be cautious. Similar optimistic expectations have appeared in past bull markets, only to end up with heavy losses. Especially now, with inflation possibly rebounding and the outlook for rate cuts uncertain, we need to stay clear-headed.

Interestingly, “Dr. Doom” Roubini has rarely shown an optimistic attitude. He believes that technological innovation will drive a strong rebound in the US economy, which reminds me of the late 1990s internet bubble. At that time, too, technological innovation led to market exuberance, but it ultimately ended with the bubble bursting.

History tells us that we should neither be blindly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. At present, we need to calmly analyze data, pay attention to policy directions, and also be on guard against risks brought by market sentiment. After all, market cycles always swing between euphoria and despair, and wise investors should remain rational and patient throughout this process.